Investigating the Validity of Climate Migration: Empirical Evidence from the Most Polluted Countries
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Abstract
The literature generally finds that lower air quality has been an important determinant of migration. This study builds a migration model employing annual data from 2010 to 2019 for the most polluted ten countries to test the validity of migration caused by air pollution through PM2.5 concentration. The Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood method results show that air pollution is one of the most significant determinants of migration from the most polluted countries. Moreover, the low income level also pushes people to migrate more from their origin regions than richer ones. The study provides some policy recommendations for policy-makers in the countries where people breathe the most polluted air: (i) governments should follow growth-promoting economic policies; (ii) environment-friendly production techniques should be implemented to prevent worsening environmental quality; (iii) climate-induced mass migration should be considered while making security policy arrangements.
JEL Codes: F22, Q53, Q56
Keywords: Climate migration, Air pollution, Gravity model, PPML
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Çelik, O. and Akça, E. (2024) “Investigating the Validity of Climate Migration: Empirical Evidence from the Most Polluted Countries”, World Journal of Applied Economics, 10(1), pp. 29-41. doi: 10.22440/wjae.10.1.3.
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References
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Roth, B. J., & Hartnett, C. S. (2018). Creating Reasons to Stay? Unaccompanied youth migration. Community-based Programs, and the Power of “Push” Factors in El Salvador. Children and Youth Services Review, 92 , 48-55. doi: 10.1016/j.childyouth.2018.01.026
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Silva, J., & Tenreyro, S. (2006). The log of gravity. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 88 (4), 641-658. doi: 10.1162/rest.88.4.641
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Tran, H. M., Tsai, F.-J., Lee, Y.-L., Chang, J.-H., Chang, L.-T., Chang, T.-Y., . . . Chuang, H.-C. (2006). The impact of air pollution on respiratory diseases in an era of climate change: A review of the current evidence. Science of the Total Environment, 898 , 166340. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.166340
Trummer, U., Ali, T., Mosca, D., Mukuruva, B., Mwenyango, H., & Novak-Zezula, S. (2023). Climate change aggravating migration and health issues in the African Context: The views and direct experiences of a community of interest in the field. Journal of Migration and Health, 7 , 100151. doi: 10.1016/j.jmh.2023.100151
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Wood, C., Gibson, C., Ribeiro, L., & Hamsho-Diaz, P. (2010). Crime Victimization in Latin America and Intentions to Migrate to the United States. International Migration Review, 44 (1), 3-24. doi: 10.1111/j.1747-7379.2009.00796.x
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Yu, X., Liang, J., & Zhang, Y. (2022). Air pollution and settlement intention: Evidence from the China migrants dynamic survey. Environmental Research and Public Health, 19 (8), 4924. doi: 10.3390/ijerph19084924
Zanabazar, A., Kho, N. S., & Jigjiddorj, S. (2021). The push and pull factors affecting the migration of Mongolians to the Republic of South Korea. SHS Web of Conferences, 90 , SHS Web of Conferences. doi: 10.1051/shsconf/20219001023
Bilak, A., Cardona-Fox, G., Ginnetti, J., Rushing, E. J., Scherer, I., Swain, M., . . . Yonetani, M. (2016). Global report on internal displacement (Report). Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC). https://api.internal-displacement.org/sites/default/files/publications/documents/2016-global-report-internal-displacement-IDMC.pdf.
Bobkova, B. (2012). Gravity Model Estimation Using Panel Data - Is Logarithmic Transformation Advisable. https://dspace.cuni.cz/bitstream/handle/20.500.11956/47004/DPTX_2011_1__0_292020_0_119811.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y
Boserup, E. (1965). The Conditions of Agricultural Growth. Aldine Publishing Company, Chicago.
Boserup, E. (1981). Population and Technological Change: A Study of Long-term Trends. University of Chicago Press, Chicago.
Brunekreef, B., & Holgate, S. T. (2002). Air pollution and health. The Lancet, 360 (9391), 1233-1242. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(02)11274-8
Caki, A. (2018). Gecmisten Bugune Turkiye'nin Goc Politikasi ve Suriyeli Gocmenler Baglaminda Goc Yonetisimi
Cameron, T. A., & McConnaha, I. T. (2006). Evidence of environmental migration. Land Economics, 82 (2), 273-290. doi: 10.3368/le.82.2.273
Chen, S., Oliva, P., & Zhang, P. (2022). The effect of air pollution on migration: Evidence from China. Journal of Development Economics, 156 , 102833. doi: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2022.102833
Chen, Y., Ebenstein, A., Greenstone, M., & Li, H. (2013). Evidence on the impact of sustained exposure to air pollution on life expectancy from China’s Huai River policy. Environmental Sciences, 110 (32), 12936-12941. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1300018110
Eurostat. (2024). First permits by reason, length of validity and citizenship. doi: 10.2908/migr resfirst
Filho, W. L., Ayal, D. Y., Chamma, D. D., Kovaleva, M., Alverio, G. N., Nzengya, D. M., . . . Nagy, G. J. (2023). Assessing causes and implications of climate-induced migration in Kenya and Ethiopia. Environmental Science and Policy, 15 , 1-11. doi: 10.1016/j.envsci.2023.103577
Harris, J. R., & Todaro, M. P. (1970). Migration, Unemployment and Development: A Twosector Analysis. The American Economic Review, 60 (1), 126-142. doi: 10.1038/s41598-021-00053-8
Hsiao, C. (2003). Analysis of Panel Data. Cambridge University Press, UK.
Hugo, G. (2008). Migration, Development and Environment (Migration Research Series No. 35). International Organization for Migration (IOM). https://publications.iom.int/system/files/pdf/mrs_35_1.pdf.
Hunter, L. M., & Nawrotzki, R. J. (2016). Migration and the environment. In M. J. White (Ed.), Handbook of migration and population distribution (p. 465-484). Springer, Dordrecht. doi: 10.1007/978-94-017-7282-2 21
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). (2023). Technical summary. In Climate change 2022 – impacts, adaptation and vulnerability: Working group ii contribution to the sixth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change (p. 37–118). Cambridge University Press.
International Organization for Migration. (2011). World Migration Report 2011: Communicating Effectively about Migration (Report). International Organization for Migration (IOM). https://publications.iom.int/system/files/pdf/wmr2011_english.pdf.
International Organization for Migration. (2022). World migration report – 2022 (Report). International Organization for Migration (IOM). https://publications.iom.int/books/world-migration-report-2022.
IQAir. (2023). World’s most polluted countries & regions. https://www.iqair.com/world-most-polluted-countries.
Khan, M. I., Alharthi, M., Haque, A., & Illiyan, A. (2023). Statistical analysis of push and pull factors of migration: A case study of India. Journal of King Saud University – Science, 35 (8), 1-12. doi: 10.1016/j.jksus.2023.102859
Laczko, F., & Piguet, E. (2014). Regional perspectives on migration, the environment and climate change. In F. Laczko & E. Piguet (Eds.), People on the move in a changing climate, global migration issues (p. 1-20). Springer Dordrecht. doi: 10.1007/978-94-007-6985-4
Lee, E. S. (1966). A theory of migration. Demography, 3 (1), 47-57. doi: 10.2307/2060063
Linnemann, H. (1966). An Econometric Study of International Trade Flows. Holland Publishing, Amsterdam.
Malthus, T. R. (1798). An Essay on the Principle of Population. J Johnson, London.
Manzoor, W., Safdar, N., & Mahmood, H. Z. (2021). A gravity model analysis of international migration from BRIC to OECD countries using Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood approach. Heliyon, 7 (6), 1-12. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2021.e07357
Martin, S. F. (2013). Environmental change and migration: What we know (Policy Brief). Migration Policy Institute. https://www.migrationpolicy.org/sites/default/files/publications/Migration-EnvironmentalChange.pdf.
Mulligan, M., Burke, S., & Douglas, C. (2014). Environmental change and migration between europe and its neighbours. In F. Laczko & E. Piguet (Eds.), People on the move in a changing climate, global migration issues (p. 49-79). Springer Dordrecht. doi: 10.1007/978-94-007-6985-4
Rahmandoust, M., Ahmadian, S., & Shah, I. M. (2011). Iranian Entrepreneurs in Malaysia: Reasons for Their Migration. World Applied Sciences Journal, 13 (9), 2075-2081. https://idosi.org/wasj/wasj13(9)/19.pdf.
Raimi, K. T., Sarge, M. A., Geiger, N., Gillis, A., & Cunningham, J. L. (2024). Effects of communicating the rise of climate migration on public perceptions of climate change and migration. Journal of Environmental Psychology, 93 , 102210. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvp.2023.102210
Roth, B. J., & Hartnett, C. S. (2018). Creating Reasons to Stay? Unaccompanied youth migration. Community-based Programs, and the Power of “Push” Factors in El Salvador. Children and Youth Services Review, 92 , 48-55. doi: 10.1016/j.childyouth.2018.01.026
Shen, F., Wang, Q., Zou, J., Yan, H., & Wang, B. (2023). Air pollution and migration decision of migrants in low-carbon society. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 20 (1), 1-18. doi: 10.3390/ijerph20010870
Silva, J., & Tenreyro, S. (2006). The log of gravity. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 88 (4), 641-658. doi: 10.1162/rest.88.4.641
Siyal, G. E. A., Khalid, I. S., & Qaisrani, A. (2019). Internal Migration and Urbanisation: A Case Study from Semi-arid Regions of Pakistan. In S. S. Aneel, U. T. Haroon, & I. Niazi (Eds.), 70 Years of Development: The Way Forward (pp. 164–187). Sustainable Development Policy Institute.
Tinbergen, J. (1962). Shaping the World Economy; Suggestions for an International Economic Policy. Twentieth Century Fund: New York. http://hdl.handle.net/1765/16826.
Tischler, J., & Haltermann, I. (2019). Environmental Change and African Societies. BRILL. https://brill.com/edcollbook-oa/title/54203?language=en.
Tran, H. M., Tsai, F.-J., Lee, Y.-L., Chang, J.-H., Chang, L.-T., Chang, T.-Y., . . . Chuang, H.-C. (2006). The impact of air pollution on respiratory diseases in an era of climate change: A review of the current evidence. Science of the Total Environment, 898 , 166340. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.166340
Trummer, U., Ali, T., Mosca, D., Mukuruva, B., Mwenyango, H., & Novak-Zezula, S. (2023). Climate change aggravating migration and health issues in the African Context: The views and direct experiences of a community of interest in the field. Journal of Migration and Health, 7 , 100151. doi: 10.1016/j.jmh.2023.100151
United Nations Population Funds (UNPF). (2015). Migration. https://www.unfpa.org/migration.
United Nations Refugee Agency (UNRA). (2023). Data finder. https://www.unhcr.org/refugee-statistics/download/?url=sH5pnE.
United States Census Bureau (USCB). (2022). State-to-State migration flows. https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/geographic-mobility/state-to-state-migration.html.
United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA). (2023). Basics of climate change. https://www.epa.gov/climatechange-science/basics-climate-change.
Wallerstein, I. (2011). Dunya Sistemleri Analizi. Bir Giris (3rd ed.; E. Abadoglu, Trans.) Bgst Yayınları.
Wood, C., Gibson, C., Ribeiro, L., & Hamsho-Diaz, P. (2010). Crime Victimization in Latin America and Intentions to Migrate to the United States. International Migration Review, 44 (1), 3-24. doi: 10.1111/j.1747-7379.2009.00796.x
World Bank. (2022). Countries and economies. https://data.worldbank.org/country.
World Bank. (2023). World development indicators. https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators.
Yu, X., Liang, J., & Zhang, Y. (2022). Air pollution and settlement intention: Evidence from the China migrants dynamic survey. Environmental Research and Public Health, 19 (8), 4924. doi: 10.3390/ijerph19084924
Zanabazar, A., Kho, N. S., & Jigjiddorj, S. (2021). The push and pull factors affecting the migration of Mongolians to the Republic of South Korea. SHS Web of Conferences, 90 , SHS Web of Conferences. doi: 10.1051/shsconf/20219001023